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Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

Discussion in 'Forex' started by FXTM Official, Jan 5, 2017.

  1. FXTM Official

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    US retail sales beat expectations

    [​IMG]

    It's been a funny day for the USD as it slipped lower on Tax legislation worries. For the most part it has fallen around two senators who are keen to fix the current child tax credits. In reality this is something republicans are likely to help remedy in order to get this bill over the final hurdles and in front of the president to sign before Christmas. However, for me the big mover - and what might have a much more interesting impact - was of course today's retail sales which lifted sharply to 0.8% m/m (0.3% exp). This is a very strong move just ahead of the December rush season and in return we could expect to see GDP forecasts raised for the 4th quarter going forward. I would be surprised if we didn't see solid earnings this season in the equity markets as well given the huge rises in consumer and business confidence. For now it would seem the Trump effect might be still there after all heading into the new year.

    [​IMG]

    One of the key areas this was felt was on the USDCAD which was swinging heavily today, not only on the USD weakness but also Bank of Canada comments which pushed up the chances of a rate hike for March next year. For the most part the USDCAD has been ranging for some time, and it has struggled to break through the major resistance level at 1.2921, which has so far seemed like an impossibility at present. One of the main reasons also has been the 200 day moving average bearing down on that level which of course adds further pressure. At the same time the swing lower today failed to stay below support at 1.2759 which leads me to believe that the bulls are still in this market despite the Canadian recovery we've seen. If the bulls do leap back into the market 200 day moving average will be the key level to close above, and if we do close above then expectations are that we could see a move upwards to the 1.3000 level. For now though it's a case of waiting to see if the ranging does stop and the trends continue.

    The other key one to watch out for is the AUD, with the market likely to be looking forward now to next week's RBA minutes on the economy and their thoughts after the most recent unemployment figures. We could certainly see the case made for a potential rate rise in the future, but for now it's a case of wait and see - even though the market is fairly bullish.

    [​IMG]

    Chart wise, and it's clear the AUDUSD bulls are back in fashion and looking to make up some ground. After the positive news yesterday and weak USD it is a surprise to see that it has failed to climb higher to the 200 day moving average and resistance at 0.7687. I still believe this is a key level to watch and if we do see further extensions it could lead to bigger things. For now though like the USDCAD it's a case of wait and see as the market looks to enter Friday trading.

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    Equities reaction muted on tax breakthrough; Watch the bond market

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    Asian markets woke up on Thursday to the news that Republicans had passed the long-awaited tax bill. President Trump is now just a pen stroke away from overhauling the tax code. Interestingly there arent any fireworks on the announcement of Trumps Christmas gift; because as expected, the good news is already priced in.

    In fact, the reaction was more evident in fixed income markets. U.S. 10-year bond yields traded above 2.5% for the first time since March 2017, allowing the yield curve to steepen after flattening for most of 2017. The spread between 2-year and 10-year treasury bonds climbed more than 12 basis points, reaching 63 basis points, after falling to its lowest level in a decade last week. The spike in long-term bond yields is supposed to be positive for the U.S. dollar, as it suggests the Federal Reserve should become more aggressive in tightening policy next year. However, the dollars reaction was muted because theres another side to this story. The additional supply of U.S. bonds due to the unfunded tax cuts, will probably make U.S. treasuries less attractive in the longer run, and given that most central banks are trying to catch up with the Federal Reserve, yields in Europe and other markets are also anticipated to move higher in 2018, thus narrowing the interest rate differentials gap.

    The enormous expected increase in U.S. deficit will also put the U.S. sovereign credit rating at risk. If any of the credit agencies- Standard & Poors, Moodys or Fitch downgrades the U.S. sovereign rating, yields will spike even higher. However, the impact on the dollar wont necessarily be positive, with the opposite reaction being more likely.

    The Yens reaction was also muted to Bank of Japans monetary policy decision. As expected, the central bank kept interest rates unchanged at -0.1% and maintained its 10-year bonds yield target at around 0%. Given that weak inflation is expected to continue dominating the monetary policy outlook, I dont expect any significant change in policy next year. Thus, the Japanese Yen will continue to take its cue from risk appetite/aversion in equity markets for the foreseeable future.

    Euro traders are awaiting the outcome of todays Catalonias election. Polls are suggesting that it will be a tight race between the Catalan Republican Left party, which supports independence and Ciudadanos which is in favor of a unified Spain. Given that the election is not expected to be decisive and parties may form coalitions to govern, the risk of tensions flaring with Madrid again, remain limited.

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    Dollar selloff in final trading week of 2017







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    With only two trading sessions remaining for 2017, liquidity dried up across the global markets. This has been obvious in U.S. and European equities, where volumes dropped significantly. However, some investors continued to tweak their portfolios slightly, leading to insignificant price action. I dont expect equities to deviate much throughout Thursday and Friday.





    Interestingly though, traders continued selling off the U.S. dollar. One could blame Wednesdays U.S. consumer confidence report which fell from a 17-year high, but the dollar was declining before the release. I think the best explanation for the dollar weakness is the sharp fall in U.S. Treasury yields.





    10-year bond yields dropped 7 basis points on Wednesday, to reverse almost 50% of the gains from mid-December towards last week, where yields broke above 2.5% for the first time since March 2017.





    Despite appetite for risk sending Asian equities to record highs on Thursday, the safe haven Yen is outperforming its major currency peers. USDJPY dipped below 113 for the first time in six trading days after the release of Bank of Japan meeting minutes. Some members are considering tightening monetary policy, if the economy continues to improve next year. This would be a significant shift in strategy for a Central Bank thought to be the last to exit the unconventional stimulus packages. However, I dont think the BoJ will move anytime soon due to subdued inflation; but, given the lack of liquidity, moves in currency markets may be exaggerated.





    Commodity currencies are also enjoying a decent upside, after copper prices rallied to their highest level in almost four years.Oil prices remained close to a two and a half year high, and gold hit a one- month high. Considering that no Tier One economic reports will be released, the Aussie, Kiwi, and Loonie will continue to follow commodity prices direction.





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    Dollar selloff in final trading week of 2017

    [​IMG]

    With only two trading sessions remaining for 2017, liquidity dried up across the global markets. This has been obvious in U.S. and European equities, where volumes dropped significantly. However, some investors continued to tweak their portfolios slightly, leading to insignificant price action. I dont expect equities to deviate much throughout Thursday and Friday.

    Interestingly though, traders continued selling off the U.S. dollar. One could blame Wednesdays U.S. consumer confidence report which fell from a 17-year high, but the dollar was declining before the release. I think the best explanation for the dollar weakness is the sharp fall in U.S. Treasury yields.

    10-year bond yields dropped 7 basis points on Wednesday, to reverse almost 50% of the gains from mid-December towards last week, where yields broke above 2.5% for the first time since March 2017.

    Despite appetite for risk sending Asian equities to record highs on Thursday, the safe haven Yen is outperforming its major currency peers. USDJPY dipped below 113 for the first time in six trading days after the release of Bank of Japan meeting minutes. Some members are considering tightening monetary policy, if the economy continues to improve next year. This would be a significant shift in strategy for a Central Bank thought to be the last to exit the unconventional stimulus packages. However, I dont think the BoJ will move anytime soon due to subdued inflation; but, given the lack of liquidity, moves in currency markets may be exaggerated.

    Commodity currencies are also enjoying a decent upside, after copper prices rallied to their highest level in almost four years.Oil prices remained close to a two and a half year high, and gold hit a one- month high. Considering that no Tier One economic reports will be released, the Aussie, Kiwi, and Loonie will continue to follow commodity prices direction.

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    FOMC minutes give some life back to dollar bulls


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    The latest FOMC minutes have given the bulls something to be happy about, as the FED once again looked to keep the pace of rate hikes in the near future. There were some key takeaways from the meeting and the most pressing was that FED officials expect inflation to rise to 2% in the medium term as the Tax bill has a impact on the US economy. Expectations were also strong that pressure on the labour market as unemployment further drops would also help boost inflation expectations, and that potentially forecasting of inflation may also have been low historically. So with the FED looking forward in 2018 and Trumps man Powell about to come to the table we could potentially see some strong bullish moves from the FED with a strong US economy in front of them.

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    For the USD bulls it was positive across the board with large rises against all the major pairs, but mainly the European ones. For me one of the more interesting ones continues to be the USDCAD which lifted slightly, but is still lacking the momentum required to break out of the current bearish trend it finds itself in. So far traders will be watching to see if there is a bounce at support at 1.2427 to see if the bulls can come back into the market, otherwise they could be waiting until 1.2108 to see any sign of a solid bounce. If we see a push back higher 1.2628 and 1.2759 are likely to be the first key levels of resistance. However, the 200 day moving average is creeping down and likely to also act as dynamic resistance in the current market climate.

    For me the main thing that keeps on going in the bullish American climate is the equity markets at present, and look no further than the S&P 500. It's getting hard to believe that there is an end, but at some point the bears will look to swipe. For now though, the Trump effect and the recent Tax reform coupled with a FED with positive forecasts is driving American companies higher than ever before and in the process lifting the S&P 500 higher than ever before. Most weeks we are seeing a new record high at present, but that being said uncertainty could be the instability that shakes the bulls off the top for a bit.

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    On the charts, and as previously stated, the focus would ideally be on psychological levels - as the market continues to rise it will look for these points. I would anticipate that markets will continue to look for key levels at 2725 and 2750 if the bulls look to push higher. Any swings lower are likely to get held up at 2700 as it acts as support in the current market. However, a push through would be treated with concern as generally speaking the 2600 and 2500 level were previously very good at holding back the bears.

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    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 4, 2018
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    A critical week for the US Dollar after a fragile start







    [​IMG][/img]





    After having the worst annual performance since 2003, the dollar continued to struggle in the first trading week of 2018. The dollar index fell to a three-and-a-half-month low to trade below 92, leaving many traders wondering whether this year will be another devastating one for the greenback. When looking at the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, speculators are not showing interest in buying the U.S. dollar yet, and the latest bunch of data did nothing to support the dollar.





    Friday's jobs report did not motivate the dollar bulls to return, with non-farm payrolls rising 148,000 in December versus expectations of 190,000. Although I think the numbers werent bad and the labor market remains healthy with unemployment at 4.1%, wages are not yet showing signs of accelerating, and this remains the key missing ingredient of the U.S. economys recovery.





    The latest minutes of the Feds meeting also showed that policymakers arent sure whether inflation will return to the central banks target which is why markets believe that only two rate hikes will occur in 2018, as opposed to the three in the Feds dot plot. This week many Fed speakers are due to speak including the two dissenters against a rate hike in December, Neel Kaskhari and Charles Evans. Whether they have changed their mind, or still believe rates shouldnt be hiked, remains to be seen but well also tune into other Fed speakers for fresh insights.





    If the Fed speakers dont deliver news, tier one economic releases may provide the needed clues. Consumer prices and retail sales are both due for release on Friday. Given that energy prices spiked in December consumer prices are expected to increase 0.2%. However, I think traders will be more interested in the core CPI figure, which strips out volatile items like food and energy. Any upside surprise in the inflation numbers will likely bring back the dollar bulls.





    Given that the major U.S. economic releases are four days away, many traders will focus on whether any technical breakouts will occur. EURUSD failed to break above 1.2092 (2017 high) last week, but a successful breakout will likely lead to further buying of the single currency towards 1.22. Similarly, Sterling is only 100 pips short of 1.3656 (2017 High). So traders should keep a close eye on these levels.







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    A critical week for the US Dollar after a fragile start

    [​IMG]

    After having the worst annual performance since 2003, the dollar continued to struggle in the first trading week of 2018. The dollar index fell to a three-and-a-half-month low to trade below 92, leaving many traders wondering whether this year will be another devastating one for the greenback. When looking at the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, speculators are not showing interest in buying the U.S. dollar yet, and the latest bunch of data did nothing to support the dollar.

    Friday's jobs report did not motivate the dollar bulls to return, with non-farm payrolls rising 148,000 in December versus expectations of 190,000. Although I think the numbers werent bad and the labor market remains healthy with unemployment at 4.1%, wages are not yet showing signs of accelerating, and this remains the key missing ingredient of the U.S. economys recovery.

    The latest minutes of the Feds meeting also showed that policymakers arent sure whether inflation will return to the central banks target which is why markets believe that only two rate hikes will occur in 2018, as opposed to the three in the Feds dot plot. This week many Fed speakers are due to speak including the two dissenters against a rate hike in December, Neel Kaskhari and Charles Evans. Whether they have changed their mind, or still believe rates shouldnt be hiked, remains to be seen but well also tune into other Fed speakers for fresh insights.

    If the Fed speakers dont deliver news, tier one economic releases may provide the needed clues. Consumer prices and retail sales are both due for release on Friday. Given that energy prices spiked in December consumer prices are expected to increase 0.2%. However, I think traders will be more interested in the core CPI figure, which strips out volatile items like food and energy. Any upside surprise in the inflation numbers will likely bring back the dollar bulls.

    Given that the major U.S. economic releases are four days away, many traders will focus on whether any technical breakouts will occur. EURUSD failed to break above 1.2092 (2017 high) last week, but a successful breakout will likely lead to further buying of the single currency towards 1.22. Similarly, Sterling is only 100 pips short of 1.3656 (2017 High). So traders should keep a close eye on these levels.

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    FXTM Forex Market Update | 09/01/2018

    New Video from #FXTM#MarketUpdate with Research Analyst ForexTime, Lukman Otunuga

    Global equity bulls were in the vicinity during Tuesdays trading session as world stocks remained at elevated levels. In the currency arena, the Dollar appreciated amid optimism over higher US interest rates. With the economic calendar relatively light today, price action may dictate where currency and commodities trade.

    - The #EURUSD is pressured below 1.20 on the daily charts
    - #GBPUSD bears are eying 1.3520
    - #Gold remains bullish above $1300


    Watch The Video @ https://youtu.be/Hrm0PybPt74

    For more Market Analysis read the latest @ http://fxtm.co/marketupdate-yt
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 10, 2018
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    Australian dollar looks weaker on commodity falls

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    The Australian dollar has been doing okay against the USD in recent times on the back of the commodity boom that has been promising. However, there have been some minor hiccups so far with iron ore prices dropping 4.4% overnight on the Asian exchanges. This in theory could present some minor problems for the Australian dollar as exporting of minerals and metals plays a significant impact on the economy. What is most interesting though is the relation to the NZD, with the AUDNZD being a key focus for traders at present. The NZ economy continues to remain robust and it's commodity based exports have seen some value in recent times with the global dairy auctions as of late. Add in the fact that the recent services PMI was also positive and you have a strong combination for the NZ economy and of course the NZD. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also undergoing some reforms but so far these have not frightened of the market.

    [​IMG]

    So for the AUDNZD it's a case of the bigger neighbour struggling against the smaller one on the currency chart. So far we've got a strong trend line pushing the bears down the chart and stopping and bullish activity taking hold, add into the mix a very strong support level and it's likely we will see some volatility look to break out of the flag pattern here. Resistance can be found at 1.0933 and 1.0982 on the charts, but I would be mainly focused on the trend line which will likely stop any bulls becoming too aggressive. Support levels are looking interesting, with 1.0855 the level to beat for the market as this is a strong level, anything through this could touch on 1.0809. Going below any of these levels could be a hard mask for the market though at present as the AUD is a bigger economy, so it could dig itself out of a hole compared to its neighbour. It's also worth remembering that the AUDNZD is at a low when you look over a very long time frame.

    Once again it's been another great day for US equity markets as they climbed the charts hitting record highs again. So far the S&P 500 is not looking like it will stop and the NASDAQ continues also to be a great runner as well. For the bulls it seems that the Trump effect is shining on further more in these markets.

    [​IMG]

    Looking at the S&P 500 and it has climbed up to resistance at 2850 before taking a breath. Expect markets to look to tackle the level again tomorrow if there are no curve balls. Any extension above 2850 is likely to find some further resistance at 2875. Markets will also be looking at possible support levels as well, and they can be found at 2825 and 2809 in the current market climate.



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    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 24, 2018
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    USD bears in control

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    The USD took another beating today which saw nearly all major pairs and commodities climb sharply as a result. This is not surprising given the recent data which saw US existing home sales m/m fall to 5.57M (5.7M exp) from the previous high of 5.78M, showing that there may be some slowdown in the housing market. US PMI for services was also lagging expectations coming in at 53.3, still showing expansion but at the same time not coming in where analysts had expected. There could be some good news on the horizon though with Trump expected to talk up his infrastructure plan at the state of the union and lay the foundation for further spending in order to bolster the economy. However, there is a danger that it could cause it to overheat as he looks to be bold and put his front foot forward. The real story though is that right now the USD continues to come under fire, and for the market this is causing large volatility.

    [​IMG]

    One of the big movers today for me was gold which sky rocketed up the charts and pushed past the previous 2017 high. It's always ominous when gold starts becoming more and more bullish but at present this is being caused by the weaker USD and resistance at 1349 was absolutely crushed today as gold whooshed past. The next levels of resistance can be found at 1366 and 1375, with 1375 likely to be a key target level for traders. Anything above this would suddenly get the market a little worried I feel, as gold is always the hedge for recessions and inflation. Support levels in the event the bears catch can be found are at 1349 and 1336, with further potential to dip lower to 1314 if the bears do manage to take hold. All in all though, if the USD weakness continues gold could be swinging higher in no time through no fault of its own.

    The New Zealand dollar has got a large shock today on the back of a weaker than expected inflation report. NZ CPI figures for Q4 came in sharply down at 0.1%, expectations were for 0.4%. Pushing the Yearly figure to 1.6%, a large shock for the previously booming economy. This will certainly put pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to pause when it comes to thinking about pushing rates higher in the economy - despite the high level of employed and wage growth at present.

    [​IMG]

    The NZDUSD on the charts quickly pushed back from resistance at 0.7431 as the news filtered through for the CPI figures. Support levels can be found at 0.7324 and 0.7255 at present, with the market also likely to treat the 20 day moving average as support as well. If the USD does gain momentum then we could see some very serious bearish pressure, at the same time if it does remain weak then potentially the NZD could stay elevated despite the recent economic news, so the market focus will be on USD data after this with a bearish bias.



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    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 25, 2018
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    US dollar claws back some ground

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    It's been a mixed day for the USD, but it has seen some respite from the relentless selling as of late. With Trump in Davos it has meant more positive than controversial from him, as he puts the gloss on with world leaders. However, economic data continued to be mixed and not necessarily positive, as US new home sales m/m dropped to 625K (675K exp) , this is a -9.3% drop on the previous month. So not positive at all. The big ray of light though, was that the US job market continues to thrive and tick over, with US jobless claims coming in at 233k (235K exp), showing that the labour market is still the major story when it comes to positivity. The consumer market though will be a key focus for the incoming chair Powell as any movements here are likely to have big impacts, but also could point to future inflation rates and the chance to lift rates higher, as 2018 is set to be the year of hikes I feel for the FED.

    [​IMG]

    For me the USDCAD is still in the focus when it comes to bearish movements at present, the reason being that oil prices have risen higher and the USD continues to fall. All the while the Canadian economy is not doing so bad either on the back of stronger commodity prices. As a result the bears have been chipping away forcing it lower, and support at 1.2256 is likely to be in the cross hairs for traders drifting lower, followed by 1.2108. If the bulls do come back into the market then resistance levels at 1.2423 and 1.2585 are likely to come under some pressure. However, the recent market conditions have not warranted any serious bullish pullbacks as of late.

    Meanwhile it could be more trouble in the United Kingdom, as news has come out that there might be further political revolting in Theresa Mays Tory party. This is not likely to topple the prime minister, but it does show the growing discontent within the party relating to current Brexit negotiations. The flow on effect for the pound of such events has been negative, with it taking some heat today and losing ground against the USD. It's likely that tomorrow will bring further news, but if none then the market is likely to focus on US GDP figures when it comes to moving the GBPUSD.

    [​IMG]

    The GBPUSD though is currently caught on support at 1.4117 with the market looking to find some breathing space before continuing. I would expect the bulls to either take another big run, or the bears to take a firm hold and drive it back down from the recent volatility. Resistance can be found at 1.4240 and this will be the key level at present. Support levels can be found at 1.3996 and 1.3856 is the GBPUSD continues to find itself under bearish pressure.

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    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 26, 2018
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    FXTM Forex Market Update | 31/01/2018

    New Video from FXTM Market Update with Research Analyst ForexTime, Lukman Otunuga

    [​IMG]

    Global stocks were under pressure on Tuesday as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. The Dollar struggled to hold ground against a basket of major currencies while Sterling was bruised by Brexit jitters. In the commodity arena, Gold benefitted from a vulnerable Dollar. The main event risk today will be BoE Mark Carneys testimony and CB Consumer confidence for the United States.

    - The #EURUSD remains bullish on the daily charts
    - #GBPUSD is currently towards 1.4175
    - #Gold bulls are eying $1360


    Watch The Video @ https://youtu.be/Ab_PJqjlVj8

    For more Market Analysis read the latest @ http://fxtm.co/marketupdate-yt
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 31, 2018
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    Markets set to focus on non-farm payroll







    [​IMG]







    The market is currently taking a breather after the US data today as it's almost time for non-farm payroll. Markets previously have been surprised by the recent swings in the labour market, especially with wage growth not matching the pace, but analysts and economists are now expecting wage growth to pick up, and this in turn could lead to a more aggressive hawkish Fed if that is the case. The Fed has always commented on the lack of wage growth being a key factor in holding it back, but if we were to see that growth then certainly there would be a case for further future hikes at a more aggressive pace. Analysts are expecting 180k, the reality could be much lower, but whatever the case there will be some large swings.





    The USDCAD has been a key one for me to watch as of late with all the USD weakness we've seen. Commodities have risen in value as a result, and none more so than oil which has lifted on the back of it. At the same time the NAFTA treaty negotiations are looking positive thus far, and the Canadian economy is positive all round about expectations for further growth. The Bank of Canada has been a little bit more neutral, but that's more to take pause and look at its southern neighbour the US more than anything else.





    [​IMG]





    So far the USDCAD has slipped lower to support at 1.2256 and is looking to extend even lower to 1.2108. While a bit of a slow mover it has been trending fairly reasonably so markets have taken notice and played on that accordingly. If the USD did see some strength from the bulls then resistance at 1.2423 and 1.2585 would be key targets for the market to move to. I still believe that if there were any bulls in this market that the 200 day moving average would be the real test, as the market has been quick to bounce of it and give up and bullish sentiment in the previous months.





    The S&P 500 has shown another day of losses on the charts which is quite rare, so much so that people have taken a fair degree of notice. In part this has been driven by the rise in treasury yields which is starting to look like it could compete in the future with the current rates of return from equity markets. Expectations still continue to mount that the market may be slightly overbought and this may be a correction.





    [​IMG]





    For me the S&P 500 is a great technical mover and this can be seen from the levels it plays off. One of the most important things though at present is the 20 day moving average which has been a sign of bullish action lately. Support can be found at 2825, 2806 and 2775, but I would mainly focus on the moving average. Resistance can be found at 2850 and 2875 in the current market climate.





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    Markets set to focus on non-farm payroll

    [​IMG]

    The market is currently taking a breather after the US data today as it's almost time for non-farm payroll. Markets previously have been surprised by the recent swings in the labour market, especially with wage growth not matching the pace, but analysts and economists are now expecting wage growth to pick up, and this in turn could lead to a more aggressive hawkish Fed if that is the case. The Fed has always commented on the lack of wage growth being a key factor in holding it back, but if we were to see that growth then certainly there would be a case for further future hikes at a more aggressive pace. Analysts are expecting 180k, the reality could be much lower, but whatever the case there will be some large swings.

    The USDCAD has been a key one for me to watch as of late with all the USD weakness we've seen. Commodities have risen in value as a result, and none more so than oil which has lifted on the back of it. At the same time the NAFTA treaty negotiations are looking positive thus far, and the Canadian economy is positive all round about expectations for further growth. The Bank of Canada has been a little bit more neutral, but that's more to take pause and look at its southern neighbour the US more than anything else.

    [​IMG]

    So far the USDCAD has slipped lower to support at 1.2256 and is looking to extend even lower to 1.2108. While a bit of a slow mover it has been trending fairly reasonably so markets have taken notice and played on that accordingly. If the USD did see some strength from the bulls then resistance at 1.2423 and 1.2585 would be key targets for the market to move to. I still believe that if there were any bulls in this market that the 200 day moving average would be the real test, as the market has been quick to bounce of it and give up and bullish sentiment in the previous months.

    The S&P 500 has shown another day of losses on the charts which is quite rare, so much so that people have taken a fair degree of notice. In part this has been driven by the rise in treasury yields which is starting to look like it could compete in the future with the current rates of return from equity markets. Expectations still continue to mount that the market may be slightly overbought and this may be a correction.

    [​IMG]

    For me the S&P 500 is a great technical mover and this can be seen from the levels it plays off. One of the most important things though at present is the 20 day moving average which has been a sign of bullish action lately. Support can be found at 2825, 2806 and 2775, but I would mainly focus on the moving average. Resistance can be found at 2850 and 2875 in the current market climate.



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  15. FXTM Official

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    Equity markets shake of the bears

    [​IMG]

    Markets have been hot and cold today as equities saw some intense volatility. For most, it was the beginning of the end at the start of the week, but the close of Tuesdays bell in the US has been so far fairly bullish. Many in the market had been expecting further falls, but so far most investors have been quick to push back on the basis that macroeconomic indicators are still strong, and there is no deterioration compared to 2008 which saw heavy falls as a result. I'm inclined to agree at this statement given the history of the markets and of course that for most economies they're looking to lift rates and cut back QE. There has been of course some minor wobbles with the US economy and Europe in the past, but so far it's full steam ahead and yields are looking good.

    [​IMG]

    The S&P 500 had a crazy day today and it would not have been for the faint hearted as the market looked to dive deeper, pushing all the way down to the 200 day moving average before starting to make a solid recovery. The 100 day moving average was ignored on the way up, but that's not surprising given the aggressive nature of these moves, but nonetheless technical's did come into play with the market hitting resistance at 2698 to pause and breath. The next level up for the bulls if they get to continue will be at 2743. Support levels if the market were to turn can be found at 2628 and 2564, but the major one will be the 200 day moving average which has so far managed to beat back the bears on such an aggressive day of volatility. I would be surprised to not see the same sort of aggressive volatility tomorrow as markets prepare for another big day again.

    [​IMG]

    Across the Atlantic in European markets the FTSE has been hammered in the previous week, but finally clawed back some major gains in line with the rest of the globe in the evening. For a while it looked like a bullish trend line may come into play, but the Monday sell-off put that out of the question and the bears took full control. The recovery today, however, was very strong and saw the market climb back up to support at 7278 as traders looked to breath - much like the S&P 500. I would be surprised to see further gains here for the FTSE as UK equities have not been as impressive on the back of Brexit. So we could see resistance levels really push back bulls in the market. On the other hand sharp drops to 7205 and 7100 are not off the cards if the bears can really get there claws back into the equity markets at present.

    All in all, at present the global equity markets present a unique opportunity, but a lot of risk when it comes to the amount of volatility. Movements like these are rare and powerful, but for traders they can come with heart palpitations.



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    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 7, 2018
  16. FXTM Official

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    Global shares extend recovery; dollar remains weak

    [​IMG]

    Asian equity markets continued to build on last weeks gains, after U.S. stocks capped their best week since 2013. Investor sentiment has gradually improved after fears of rising inflation sent most global indices into correction territory. The Cboes Volatility Index (VIX) ended Fridays session below 20, suggesting that indictments from Special Counsel Robert Mueller against 13 Russian nationals for alleged interference in the 2016 elections did little to impact investor decisions. With the U.S. markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day and the Greater China region remaining offline for the Lunar New Year, expect trading volumes to be below average.

    The U.S. Dollars weakness remained a bit of a mystery for many currency traders, as it is supposed to follow differential in yields. The gap between U.S. and German 10-year yields widened to 217 basis points, and had gained 28% since mid-July 2017. Similarly, U.S. Japan 10-year yields widened 285 basis points, the highest increase since 2007. Still, the Dollar declined against the Euro, Japanese Yen and all other major currencies.

    One explanation for why the correlation between the Dollar and yield differentials has broken recently, is that financial market participants are forward-looking. Investors believe that rising inflation in the U.S. will spread to other economies, leading to tighter monetary policies elsewhere. When major central banks such as the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan begin normalizing policies, rate differentials will narrow at a fast pace, given that they are starting from a very low base.

    Yields in the U.S. are not just rising because of higher inflation expectations, but also due to rising twin deficits the fiscal and current account. This should make U.S. debt less attractive, and gold will likely become the primary beneficiary as it continues to benefit from inflationary pressures and budget deficit worries.

    However, this view may change if the Fed decides to take a more aggressive approach in fighting inflation. Wednesdays FOMC minutes will likely reveal fresh hawkish insights, but for the dollar to make a U-turn, it requires the Fed to tighten policy faster than previously estimated. Any indication of four rate hikes instead of three in 2018 will do the trick, but this is unlikely to appear in Wednesdays minutes, and investors will probably need to wait until the March meeting.



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    Sterling tumbles, Euro slips while Gold fumbles

    [​IMG]

    Sterling initially entered the trading week on a solid footing following hawkish comments from Bank of England (BOE) deputy governor sir Dave Ramsden.

    In a Sunday times article over the weekend Ramsden said Relative to where I was, I see the case for rates rising somewhat sooner rather than somewhat later. The firmly hawkish comments swiftly reinforced market expectations of an interest rate hike in May. With the Pound sensitive to monetary policy speculation, the prospects of higher UK interest rates in 2018 simply injected bulls with a renewed sense of confidence to attack on Monday morning. Interestingly, the British Pound eventually found itself under fresh selling pressure in the afternoon as bears re-entered the scene.

    From a technical standpoint, the GBPUSD punched above the 1.4050 level during early trading on Monday. A touch of Dollar weakness fueled the upside with prices eventually peaking around 1.4069 before sinking back below 1.4000 as of writing. Daily bulls need to maintain control above the 1.4000 level for the GBPUSD to challenge 1.4100 and 1.4230, respectively. A failure for prices to keep above 1.4000 could result in a decline back towards 1.3900 and 1.3850.

    [​IMG]

    EURUSD blocked by 1.2350 resistance level

    Euro bulls have been halted on repeated occasions by the stubborn gatekeeper known as 1.2350.

    Although the EURUSD remains fundamentally bullish, the currency pair is at risk of sinking lower if bulls fail to conquer and break above the 1.2350 level. Taking a look at the technical picture, there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while the MACD trades to the upside. With the daily candlesticks trading comfortably above the 50 Simple Moving Average, a breakout seems imminent. If bulls are able to break above 1.2350, then the next key levels of interest will be at 1.2400, 1.2430 and 1.2520, respectively. Alternatively, sustained weakness below 1.2350 could encourage a decline back towards 1.2260 and 1.2200.

    [​IMG]

    Commodity spotlight Gold

    Gold struggled to maintain gains during Mondays trading session thanks to a stabilizing Dollar.

    It is becoming clear that market expectations of higher US interest rates have exposed the yellow metal to downside risks. It must be kept in mind that Gold is zero-yielding, and is likely to remain pressured in a high interest rate environment. Technical traders will continue to observe how the yellow metal behaves around the $1340 region. Sustained weakness below $1340 could encourage a decline back towards the $1324.15 level. Alternatively a decisive breakout and daily close above $1340 may open a path higher towards $1360.

    [​IMG]

    Currency spotlight GBPJPY

    The notoriously volatile GBPJPY ventured towards the 150.00 level during early trading on Monday.

    Price action suggests that the currency pair is under pressure on the daily charts with 150.50 acting as the first level of interest. If prices are unable to break above the 150.50 level, then bears could be inspired to drag the GBPJPY lower towards the 148.50 support regions. A breakout above 150.50 simply invalidates the current downtrend and suggests that prices could test 151.60.

    [​IMG]



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    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 27, 2018
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    Tech selloff drags down global equities







    [​IMG]







    The steep losses in U.S. technology stocks were carried into Asian markets today with all major indices tracking Wall Street declines. Facebook made the headlines on Monday as reports over the weekend claimed that data from 50 million users was accessed without their permission. The stock fell 6.8% and wiped out almost $37 billion from its market cap. The news will undoubtedly scare advertisers, especially if it leads to regulators changing Facebooks business model in a way which it may impact the companys revenues.





    Investors should not only be worried about the drop in Facebook equities but also FAANG stocks which have been leading the bull market for many years. Alphabet dropped 3% yesterday, while Apple, Netflix, and Amazon declined 1.53%, 1.56%, and 1.7% respectively. While the fall in Facebook might have impacted the sector negatively, it does not explain the full picture. Concerns that the European Commission will impose new taxes on Tech firms in retaliation for U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, is an early indication that the trade war should be taken more seriously. If markets decided to turn on FAANG stocks, we would likely see a similar reaction to last Februarys correction.





    Jay Powell Fed & the dots





    The newly appointed Fed Chair, Jay Powell will hold his first press conference tomorrow when the U.S. central bank is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 2018. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis point rate increase, so do not expect this to have any influence on the dollars direction.





    The key to dollar traders is how Fed officials, led by the new Chair, will act on recent economic data and whether the fiscal stimulus will eventually lead to tighter monetary policy in 2018. Market participants are split on whether the Fed will project four rate hikes in 2018 compared to three in the last meeting. An upward shift in the dot plot should support the dollar, although it is likely to lead to further flattening in the U.S. yield curve.





    Brexit transition deal sends Sterling higher





    The pound was the best performing currency on Monday rising 0.6% against the USD to trade back above 1.40. A Brexit deal was thought to be more positive for Sterling, but given that no agreement was reached on the Irish border, gains were capped. I believe that Sterling may still have further room to appreciate against its peers especially if Consumer prices today and wage data tomorrow provide new signs of inflationary pressure before Bank of England meet on Thursday.





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  19. FXTM Official

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    Tech selloff drags down global equities

    [​IMG]

    The steep losses in U.S. technology stocks were carried into Asian markets today with all major indices tracking Wall Street declines. Facebook made the headlines on Monday as reports over the weekend claimed that data from 50 million users was accessed without their permission. The stock fell 6.8% and wiped out almost $37 billion from its market cap. The news will undoubtedly scare advertisers, especially if it leads to regulators changing Facebooks business model in a way which it may impact the companys revenues.

    Investors should not only be worried about the drop in Facebook equities but also FAANG stocks which have been leading the bull market for many years. Alphabet dropped 3% yesterday, while Apple, Netflix, and Amazon declined 1.53%, 1.56%, and 1.7% respectively. While the fall in Facebook might have impacted the sector negatively, it does not explain the full picture. Concerns that the European Commission will impose new taxes on Tech firms in retaliation for U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, is an early indication that the trade war should be taken more seriously. If markets decided to turn on FAANG stocks, we would likely see a similar reaction to last Februarys correction.

    Jay Powell Fed & the dots

    The newly appointed Fed Chair, Jay Powell will hold his first press conference tomorrow when the U.S. central bank is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 2018. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis point rate increase, so do not expect this to have any influence on the dollars direction.

    The key to dollar traders is how Fed officials, led by the new Chair, will act on recent economic data and whether the fiscal stimulus will eventually lead to tighter monetary policy in 2018. Market participants are split on whether the Fed will project four rate hikes in 2018 compared to three in the last meeting. An upward shift in the dot plot should support the dollar, although it is likely to lead to further flattening in the U.S. yield curve.

    Brexit transition deal sends Sterling higher

    The pound was the best performing currency on Monday rising 0.6% against the USD to trade back above 1.40. A Brexit deal was thought to be more positive for Sterling, but given that no agreement was reached on the Irish border, gains were capped. I believe that Sterling may still have further room to appreciate against its peers especially if Consumer prices today and wage data tomorrow provide new signs of inflationary pressure before Bank of England meet on Thursday.



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  20. FXTM Official

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    Markets continue to look unsettled

    [​IMG]

    Markets were looking a little unsettled today after yesterdays bullish rise in equity markets. Many had expected that potentially today would see equity bulls look to retake further ground after the recent loses but they were hampered by economic data, as US consumer confidence missed expectations coming in at 127.7 (131 exp). Many had expected a slight rise, as the US economy has been booming and unemployment continues be at record levels, but perhaps the recent political turmoil's are weighing down on the American people. For the most part traders will be eagerly watching tomorrows US GDP results and of course US home sales, to try and gauge the strength of the economy over the last quarter, and for home sales to see if they're improving in line with analysts expectations. Any strong bearish signals could send the equity markets into a bit of a spin, but it's definitely worth watching as right now volatility is very high.

    [​IMG]

    For me the S&P 500 continues to be the one to watch, right now the technical's are very strong and the market is not keen to just lurch forward like previously in some sort of bullish trance. The traders have woken up and are very keen to make the most of it! So far resistance at 2664 is holding back further movements higher after today's disappointing result. In the event of the bears looking to take hold we could see a push down to 2628, but weak economic news could see the all important 200 day moving average retested. In the event we see a push upwards I would be watching the 2693 resistance level and the 100 day moving average, as it sets up a strong technical challenge for the bulls in the present climate. All in all US equities and the S&P 500 continue to be for me the one to watch, especially when playing the technical's as of late.

    Spare a thought for the Australian dollar, as lately it has lost the spring in its step. It continues to struggle against the USD as of late, even when it's weaker. So far things are not looking up either economically, and with no economic news this week things could be a little tough as technical traders and USD bulls take hold of things.

    [​IMG]

    On the chart it's clear to see that we're sitting in a bearish wedge, further down the line we could see a potential breakout to the upside. However, for the time being the feeling is quite bearish and resistance today at 0.7760 continues to look quite intimidating for any bulls in the market. When you throw in a 100 day moving average which has been quite tough then things seem almost insurmountable for any bulls in the market. If the bears do get their way then a fall to 0.7546 looks on the cards, but I would also watch the walls of the wedge for dynamic support of course. Any breakthrough and close through the wedge wall should be treated as a very bearish signal.

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    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 28, 2018
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